Why did Irene say, “I don’t think so, do you?”

 (Sherlock Meta by Loudest Subtext in Television)

Anonymous said: 

I feel like an idiot for asking this and I'm going a bit old school but in ASiB what did Irene mean when she said "I don’t think so…do you?" It's the line right after "Well I am. Look at us both." And then the text noise and they both realize Sherlock is listening

Loudest Subtext in Television:

I get this question a lot so I’ll finally answer it. [...]

Irene’s purpose is to drive a wedge between John and Sherlock, and she fears Moriarty is going to punish her for inadvertently driving them together. John also just suggested Sherlock might have some kind of minor thing for her, and she’s hoping that’s true so she has more to work with to weasel the Bond Air deduction out of him. That means she can’t let John interfere.

She didn’t expect Sherlock to be there, so she didn’t see the harm in pointing out the obvious to John; I think she felt sympathetic for John, being in a sort of similar position. She’s as confused about Sherlock’s sexuality as John is, and isn’t sure if Sherlock is asexual or gay or what. Remember, at the beginning of the episode she says she’s sure about John but she’s not so sure about Sherlock. She then seems to take Sherlock for heterosexual when he noticed her measurements and tries to flirt with him via texts, but he doesn’t answer any of them. She thinks she must have misjudged and admits defeat. She fakes her death to play the damsel in distress angle instead: Moriarty has told her Sherlock will save her life if given a second chance.

So when she shows up at Battersea, she thinks Sherlock is either asexual or gay, and she feels bad for John because even if Sherlock is gay she has no clue why he and John aren’t fucking already. (Irene can come have tea with me any day, we’d have a lot to discuss.) All Irene can deduce is this: either Sherlock isn’t into John (asexual, or gay and just not into John, or possibly heterosexual and not into Irene), or it’s just that John hasn’t made his feelings known.

But then Irene realizes Sherlock overheard, and has a moment of panic.Irene hasn’t been hiding her feelings, though, so this isn’t about her worrying that Sherlock will know she’s into him. She wants Sherlock to know she’s into him so she can manipulate him and he’ll trust her motives. She always wanted Sherlock to know she’s alive.

Irene panics about Sherlock hearing John’s feelings. It’s about keepingJohn from rushing after Sherlock.

She keeps John from rushing after Sherlock because if John confronts him then, it will be to address what Sherlock just overheard, and that could go poorly for Irene: she knows she’d lose any possible sexual leverage she has if Sherlock is the least bit interested in John — he’ll hook up with John right then and leave her out in the cold — and Moriarty will kill her for blabbing.

She encourages John to stay back, hoping that after the initial shock has worn off John will realize he didn’t actually admit to anything — he said he’s not gay, after all — and default back to saying nothing. After all, there are two possible scenarios that Irene recognizes: Sherlock isn’t interested in John and nothing will change, or John has had compelling reasons to stay quiet for a long time and won’t take any convincing to keep staying quiet — he just needs a moment to remember those reasons.

Basically, the way Irene maintains the best chance of getting the deduction is by making sure John doesn’t confront Sherlock that moment. So that’s what she does.